On Lineups and What it Means to Play the "Four"

After Dwaink got the conversation rolling in the other thread, I think the topic of lineups is worthy of its own post. I want to explore the factors both on and off the court that will determine who will play – and where.

The Depth

The Pacers are deep – really deep. Perhaps not quite the Mariana Trench of NBA teams... but would you trust the OceanGate sub to make it to the bottom of our roster? Out of an abundance of class and respect for the dead, I'll politely refrain from answering.

In the words of former Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano, "man sharpens man and iron sharpens iron." The competition for minutes should raise the level of play of everyone on the team, which is something the Pacers sorely need if they hope to make the playoffs next season. In theory, it should also help the playoff effort by providing injury insurance.

And if the team does make the playoffs, the versatility will be a weapon. Every year, we see series decided by matchups. The best coaches tinker with lineups not only from round to round, but from game to game. Look no further than the Miami Heat who used constant adjustments – toggling from big to small, zone to man – punching and counterpunching Eastern Conference opponents into submission en route to the Finals.

The flip side of depth is that egos will be bruised. Players who deserve to play will be forced to sit – or play out of position. Last year the team culture was strong enough to quell any discontent. Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith were each other's biggest supporters. Oshae Brissett was the team's hype man. Andrew Nembhard came into the season expecting to be the last man on the roster and was happy with any playing time, regardless of position. So was Aaron Nesmith for that matter. Benn Mathurin asked to be coached hard, wanting to earn his stripes as a rookie.

Will those team-first vibes continue into this year? Or will more experience and anxiety about the next contract change the outlook for a few players? Toppin, Nwora, Nesmith, and Buddy will all be free agents this summer. Jalen Smith has a player option that he might decline if he feels there isn't a place for him on the team.

The coaching staff is going to have to make hard decisions about playing time which will not only affect who takes the court this year but also in years to come.

Playing With Size

Last year the team was imbalanced. It lacked both quality and quantity at the forward positions and forced Carlisle to play small. The Front Office has made moves to address the issue by adding Jordan Nwora at the deadline, drafting Jarace Walker, and trading for Obi Toppin. The team also unloaded a huge chunk of cap space on Bruce Brown. While Brown is a very versatile player who the Pacers list as a forward, he is 6'3.5'' (without shoes) with a 6'9'' wingspan. That puts him somewhere between Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith on the size spectrum. All three have shown the ability to check opposing teams' scoring forwards but the Brown addition does not help with the fact that the team's best wing defenders are guard sized.

To be very clear, the need for traditionally sized forwards has nothing to do with offense. If you hark back to the exit interviews, everyone had the same response to questions about what it will take to make a leap in '23-'24: the Pacers have to get better at defense and rebounding. The conventional wisdom is that because the Pacers played small last year, the team was at a disadvantage in those areas. They relied on double-teams and trapping to counter size mismatches. Examples of good box-outs where few and far between.

The problem, as I see it, is that of the three "legit" forwards the Pacers added over the last five months, only Walker fits the bill of an (above) average defender and rebounder. But even Walker comes with a healthy dose of question marks. After all, he's a rookie who just had his offseason cut short by elbow surgery.

So the question becomes, if the key to winning more games is being better at defense and rebounding – and the key to better defense and rebounding is playing with more size – did the Pacers make the necessary improvements to the roster? And if playing with size alone doesn't lead to more wins, is there a combination that will?

The Team I Expect to Start the Year

In my humble opinion, the most logical starting lineup on opening night is:

• Haliburton
• Brown
• Mathurin
• Toppin
• Turner

Haliburton and Turner aren't up for debate – they are going to start at the 1 and 5, respectively, as long as they are healthy. Brown, though much more of a positional wildcard than the other two, is a guaranteed starter given the financial commitment made to him in Free Agency. So, Toppin and Mathurin is where the conversation gets interesting.

Let's start with Toppin because he'll be filling the much maligned four slot. Though not know for his defense or rebounding, Obi has size. At 6'9'' with a 7'2'' wingspan, opposing forwards can't simply shoot over him. Couple that with his athleticism and there's no physical reason Toppin can't be a solid defender and plus rebounder. If he doesn't provide an upgrade in those departments, rebounding especially, it's because of basketball IQ and effort. Will a change of scenery make a difference? Time will tell.

You may be thinking, "Hold on a minute. Why not Jarace Walker? We just drafted him in the top-10, he also has size, and all indications are that he will be above average at defending and rebounding." I think the elbow injury likely puts the nail in the coffin on him being an opening day starter. But, putting that aside, I still believe Toppin is the logical choice to get first crack at the Four for two reasons: 1) he's in a contract year and 2) he was acquired specifically to play with Haliburton.

When the Pacers essentially swapped Duarte for Toppin, they gave up a year of team control. Now, they have only one season to determine if Toppin is part of the long term future or simply a band-aid. Moreover, if he does stick, it'll likely be due to the way he complements Tyrese Haliburton. Not only does he excel as a finisher in transition, he's a close friend of Haliburton's off the court. If the Pacers are going to get the most out of Toppin, it makes sense to play the two of them together. Therefore, I think the starting four spot is Toppin's to lose, much like it was Jalen Smith's last year. I'm a bit more confident in Toppin than I was in Smith but I expect the coaching staff to experiment with starting lineup regardless.

A Minor Detour: What is a "Four?"

The reason I expect a healthy dose of experimentation is that NBA strategy has evolved past traditional positions. In the past if you asked me to think of a starting Four, I'd immediately conjure images of the Davis Brothers or David West. Stout and burly, 6'7'' to 6'10''. Now I think of a hodgepodge of body types. From Gary Payton II to Jalen Williams to Giannis, the commonality between modern Power Forwards is that the position requires versatility above all else.

Based on last year, we know exactly what the team wants to do. It wants to play fast, switch defensively, and spread the court on offense. Pritchard mentioned that he believes Power Forwards are involved in too many defensive actions to start an offensive specialist at the position. Furthermore, Carlisle described his ideal "four-man" as "6'8/6'9, has length, guards multiple positions, shoots threes, and makes plays." Of course, those guys are few and far between.

Last year, Aaron Nesmith was the best option, even though he didn't meet Carlisle's height criteria. His combination of defensive and offensive versatility unlocked some genuinely successful lineups for the team. Obviously the hope is that Jarace Walker develops into that guy. In fact, he doesn't need to become an All-NBA offensive player to be a home run pick, he just needs to be a Swiss-Army knife who can take whatever the game gives him.

But if he doesn't have the shooting ability to spread the floor on offense – and if Toppin turns out to be more of an offensive specialist – then the team should revisit playing small. The lineup numbers from last year deserve a second look. Our small-ball configurations posted some of the best points-per-possession ratings in the league, albeit in somewhat small sample sizes.

Back to the Opening Day Starting Lineup

The numbers in the graphic above make a strong case that Buddy Hield's shooting is invaluable to the Pacers' success. I made the argument that Toppin should start because his talent is maximized by playing with Haliburton – the same goes for Buddy. So, even though I'm predicting that Mathurin will be a part of the initial starting five, allow me to present a counterargument.

Part of what allowed Mathurin to find so much success as a rookie was the fact that he operated as the primary option on the second unit. That's not to say he doesn't mesh well with Haliburton. They played over 800 minutes together last season and those minutes were largely successful. But Mathurin doesn't need – or necessarily want – to be spoon fed on offense like many of the other players on the roster. He's much more comfortable playing at his own pace and creating his own gravity than simply existing as a satellite in Haliburton's orbit. On top of that, the player he'd be replacing in the starting lineup, Buddy Hield, depends on that orbit to thrive. Much like Toppin, if Hield isn't playing most of his minutes next to Hali, he's being criminally misused.

Nevertheless, Mathurin is being groomed for bigger things. Between the organization, the fans, and most of all, himself, Benn doesn't suffer from a shortage of lofty expectations. If he's going to reach those heights, he needs to be a starter. For that reason I think he'll get first crack as one of the wings, even if he ends up playing extended minutes with the second unit in a role remarkably similar to last year.

A Shot at the Depth Chart

Below is my best guess at an opening day depth chart.

Questions that will determine rotations

The "starter" designation is largely overrated. What matters more is the amount of minutes played and in what configurations. While the Pacers can get creative with the latter, I have a few questions (outside of the ones already discussed) that I think will largely determine how the minutes battle plays out.

1) Does Andrew Nembhard get most of his minutes as the back up point guard or as a wing?

Nembhard, at his heart, is a point guard. As long as Haliburton is healthy he'll never get to run the first unit, which means that if he wants to play the point, TJ McConnell will have to move out of the rotation.

The secondary effect would be that more wing minutes open up for Nesmith, who would likely feel hard-done if he were out of the rotation in a contract year after being a starter for most of last season.

2) Can Walker earn his minutes?

The competition for the forward minutes will be fierce. Again, Nesmith, Toppin, Nwora, and potentially Smith, are going to be free agents. In the depth chart above three of those names are buried. Developing Walker should obviously be a priority but I wonder how much of a leash he'll get if he makes typical rookie mistakes. Not only will the players behind him be starving for playing time, the team is on the record about wanting to be as competitive as possible this year. The coaching staff might not be as forgiving to Walker as it was to Mathurin and Nembhard a year ago.

3) Will the Pacers make a trade?

With a handful of useful players hitting the market next summer and not enough minutes for everybody, a trade seems like an obvious solution. If the Front Office can bundle a few underused players for future draft assets, I would consider it a win. Perhaps something like McConnell and one of Smith/Nwora/Nesmith would be enticing to a contender. Of course, depending how that works out, the minutes distribution could change significantly.

What lineup questions are you looking forward to having answered when the season starts? Let me know in the comments.