The Pacers had a story book season last year and, unlike their rivals in New York, decided that internal development would push them to the next level. Unfortunately, it appears that was a miscalculation.

In my opinion, the miscalculation was less about betting on the players on our roster but in assuming that growth would come naturally. The league evolves from year to year. If you do anything well, opposing teams will adjust and take it away.

For example, Tyrese Haliburton has been forced into a much less favorable shot diet than he had during his breakout campaign, a season ago.

That's why it's imperative to stay ahead of the scouting report during the summer. The NBA season is too grueling to add new elements to your arsenal once it begins. Failing to prepare for an updated scouting report is what leaves you giving interviews like the one below after every game.

Notwithstanding any of the above – or what my eyes tell me whenever I watch a Pacers game – I still see reasons to believe that the team will turn it around.

First of all, whenever I put the efficiency graphics in these threads, it always stands out to me that the Pacers actually have a relatively good eFG%. Even though we all feel like the team does nothing right, they are top-10 in that regard.

So then why, if they are making a decent amount of the shots they take, are they so bad at points per possession? Certainly, you can look at that table and point to the fact that they are turning the ball over more than last year. In fact, Carlisle has singled out turnovers as the area the team needs to clean up the most.

But you can just as easily point to the fact that they are getting less points off of putbacks as well. Again, the Pacers are a surprisingly efficient half-court team despite all of their struggles. But where they are falling way behind is in creating second chances. They are averaging just about 10 points less per miss than they were a season ago! Almost 4 fewer plays per miss!

I know they've lost both backup centers and are struggling with size, but they need to figure out how to create easy points off of extra possessions or else the offense will never be able to make up for their inherent defensive deficiencies.

The other big drop off from last year is in their transition efficiency. Even though they are playing at a slower pace, the Pacers are generating just about the same amount of transition opportunities. The difference is that last year they made their opponents pay and this year they are squandering those opportunities.

I can't really explain why they are so much worse than last year when it comes to making transition chances count. Without a doubt, the whole team seems to be less decisive than it was last year. But even so, I have to believe that this stretch is a bit of an outlier and that at some point we'll see them look more like the team that ran opponents out of the building.

When will that regression to the mean occur? Perhaps when Aaron Nesmith returns.

I don't want to place too much importance on Nesmith's role in the offense but his efficiency as a role player was vital to the team's success last year. Not only is he a deadly catch-and-shoot threat (as is Siakam currently), but also he makes quick decisions when he has the ball. The Pacers badly need that element back ASAP.

Speaking of injured players, the Pacers have been granted DPE's for Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman. While this helps with roster flexibility, it doesn't help that much. The Pacers still have no empty roster spots and are right up against the Luxury Tax.

The Bulls

I know this is crazy since Chicago has been one of the best offensive teams this year and perhaps the best over the last week...

... But I'm predicting a win tonight. The Bulls are on a second night of a back-to-back and the Pacers are playing for their sanity, if not their souls. It's the last night of a road trip and they are a few hours from home. I think we give this game everything we have and overwhelm a Bull's team that is tired and likely overlooking us.

Injuries

Nembhard is questionable. Expect him to play at least limited minutes as he returns from injury.

How to Watch

Tipoff is at 8:00 PM ET.

TV: FanDuel Sports Network, NBA League Pass

Radio: 93.5/107.5 The Fan

See ya in the comments!

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