The Indiana Pacers enter Sunday's NBA Draft Lottery in one of the most fascinating positions I can recall. We're about a year out from looking like championship material. And yet, we just endured a disastrous 19-63 season — the worst record in franchise history — and have a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, tied for the best odds in the lottery.

But unlike the teams we're tied with, Indiana faces another unique wrinkle: the Ivica Zubac trade.

The Zubac Trade

In early February, with the team sitting at 13-38 and spiraling toward the lottery, the Front Office made one of the most aggressive — and, perhaps, controversial — moves of the trade deadline. The Pacers sent Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, and two first-round picks to the Los Angeles Clippers for Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown.

We'll find out in a few hours if this year's pick is part of the deal.

If the Pacers land in the top four on today, they keep the pick. If they fall to 5 or 6, it goes to the Clippers. If it doesn't convey this year, it rolls over into an unprotected 2031 first-rounder.

At the time, many fans — myself included — worried we might have overpaid in draft capital. I mean... if we don't get a blue chip rookie in June, what was this season for?

You could argue that Zubac is very good but he's not a shooter and spacing is important to our offense. And even if he fits like a glove, Mathurin plus any combination of the picks (the unprotected ones being just far enough out to potentially haunt us) is a really good return for Zubac.

Sure, that's the cost of doing business in the NBA – but it's a gamble.

With that in mind, I found Buchanan's recent comments to shed light on the thinking behind the deal — and it's clear that managing the salary cap in our new tax era was a major part of the decision and will be in all decisions going forward.

Finances Drove the Decision

"When we made the trade, obviously we knew there was a risk involved," Buchanan said in a recent radio interview. "With the draft pick involved, we looked at the finances of the situation and the scenario where you keep the pick, and the scenario where you lose the pick. We felt that both scenarios provided opportunities to help our team be better next year."

The Pacers project to have just under $200 million in salary commitments this offseason. If they keep a top-4 pick, that number jumps significantly — a top-four pick carries a "pretty significant salary slot," as head coach Rick Carlisle noted.

But if they lose the pick? Those tax dollars become available for free agency or another trade. Buchanan and the front office clearly see flexibility in both outcomes.

More than that, Zubac is one of the best value contracts in the league. He makes an average of $19,550,160 per year over the next three years. For an All-Star caliber center in the modern era, that's a steal and a half. And even though I've been a bit critical of him thus far in the article, let's not forget that he is very good and we are in a win-now situation.

"The core of this comes down to Ivica is a great player," Buchanan said. "We've been a big believer, a big fan of him for a long time. This team has shown that it's capable of doing some really special things. We were missing a starting center that we thought could keep us in that mix. We owed it to this group and these fans and our community to put us in position to try and replicate some of the things we've seen these last two years from this team."

Devaluing First-Round Picks

Reading between the lines, it seems clear that the Pacers have devalued picks that aren't at the very top or bottom of the first round. The franchise has gotten mixed results from recent top-10 selections Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker. If you look at what they are doing through the lens of trying to maximize every dollar on the roster, you can't blame them for not wanting to spending over $6M per year on a guy Carlisle is never going to play.

The season of development we just witnessed is over. Expect them to pursue a championship with full force next year. "This team has shown that it is capable of doing some really special things," Buchanan said. "We don't want to be standing on the sidelines watching teams go for a trophy."

The Math Today

Here's where things stand:

  • 14% chance at No. 1 pick (tied for best odds with Washington and Brooklyn)
  • 52.1% chance of landing in the top 4 and keeping the pick
  • 47.9% chance of falling to 5-9 and losing the pick to the Clippers

It's essentially a coin flip.

If the Pacers keep the pick, they gain access to elite prospects like AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), or Caleb Wilson (UNC). Any of those players could be potentially transformational alongside a healthy Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Zubac, et al.

If they lose the pick, Buchanan is prepared to pivot. "Should we lose the pick, there's other opportunities to improve our team through free agency," he said. "One thing this season revealed for us is the need for some scoring off our bench, probably from the wing position."

Let's hope they address that need at first overall.

How to Watch

When: Sunday, May 10, 3:00 PM ET
Where: ABC
What's at Stake: Everything

See ya in the comments!

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