A few days ago I posted a comment with a quote about "false-ceiling" prospects. The author of article used the concept to analyze the unrecognized potential of Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks, both of whom are billed as having high floors but low ceilings. As I evaluate Gradey Dick, it's hard not to label him the same way. Sure, the shooting will translate, so will the cutting and the hustle, but can he defend anyone? Can he create? If not, what makes him better than, say, Doug McDermott?

I'm not sure. You can't blame anyone for feeling like Dick is the easiest scout in the draft. That his strengths are already realized and he doesn't have much room to improve on his weaknesses. But that's exactly the trap of false-ceiling prospects. So which is it? Underrated or low ceiling?

Let's start with a refresher on the concept on false-ceiling prospects, then see how Gradey measures up:

We often underestimate the upside of freshman-aged prospects who are billed as guaranteed role players.

In the past, myself and others have referred to these types of guys as “false-ceiling” prospects. These prospects are rightfully considered good basketball players who are likely to contribute early, but their avenues to greater upside are ignored. My favorite recent example of a false ceiling prospect is Franz Wagner, who I had as my 12th ranked prospect in 2021. Franz is the prospect who forced me to internalize the lesson of false ceiling prospects in the first place. Many, including me, thought of him as someone who could become a quality role player in the NBA. But, I missed the point entirely. Franz was a freshman-aged prospect with some pro experience in Europe and was highly impactful at Michigan. Because he was already great at basketball, I moved him down in favor of guys with more upside (translation: they were worse at basketball and had more room to improve). I vowed not to make the same mistake.
One-Size Fits All Draft Strategy | Swish Theory
Michael Neff’s Strategy for the 2023 Draft Lately, I have been dissatisfied with using a big board as a means of properly reflecting my thoughts on a given draft class. I would target certain players in each range of the draft. The rest are just red herrings who are decent to good prospects, but I .…
Michael NeffSwish Theory

I highly recommend reading the whole article if you haven't already. It's full of good insight.

Freshman aged ✅

So far so good. Dick is only 19 – a true one-and-done college player.

Billed as guaranteed role player who is likely to contribute early ✅

Everyone seems to have the same scouting report: his shooting and off-ball offense will translate right away but he'll get targeted on defense. He has a high floor as a shooting specialist but he'll have to make unlikely athletic gains to be more than a role player.

The comps that get thrown around are Kevin Huerter, Cam Johnson, and Bojan Bogdanovic.

Highly impactful at a young age (i.e. already good) ✅

Long story short, he started from day one on a top-seeded, senior-laden, Kansas team. He played 32 mins a game and averaged about 14/5/2 on 44%/40%/85%.

But that doesn't quite capture how good of an athlete Dick has been up to this point in his life. To give you the full picture, I'm going to copy and paste from the background section of Same Vecenie's Draft Guide.

Gradey is one of those guys who is good at everything he’s done athletically. He won the Kansas City Chiefs Punt, Pass and Kick competition twice as a kid. Was an all-league baseball player as a freshman in 2019 before focusing on basketball. And was good at basketball immediately... Was an all-league selection as a high school freshman at Wichita Collegiate before winning all-state honors and Gatorade Player of the Year in Kansas as a sophomore. Transferred to Midwest powerhouse Sunrise Christian Academy as a junior and played with 2022 NBA Draft picks Kendall Brown and Kennedy Chandler. Won a gold medal in the 3x3 U18 World Cup for the United States team. Was among the most decorated players in college basketball as a senior. Won the Gatorade National Player of the Year award on his way to being named a McDonald’s All-American and a Nike Hoop Summit participant for Team USA. Was a consensus five-star recruit who committed to Kansas in his junior year of high school... Was strong from the first game with the Jayhawks. He earned All-Freshman honors in the Big 12, in addition to being named second-team All-Big 12. Helped Kansas to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament...

In other words, Gradey Dick has been one of the best players at every level of competition. But does that tell us he'll continue to thrive as the competition level increases? Or simply that being 6'8 and having good eye-hand coordination is enough to excel in the amateur ranks?

Again, I'm not sure. If we just accept that he's going to be killer off-ball threat on offense, which most people do, the operative question is where does the growth come from?

Defense

Everything comes down to whether or not Dick defend well enough to stay on the floor in the playoffs. It's the difference between Klay Thompson and Duncan Robinson (before his resurgence at least). Sure, I'm being reductive but the point stands that a player can possess all the shooting gravity in the world and still come out as a net negative if he can't get a stop when targeted.

Much like Tyrese Haliburton, Dick's problems defensively stem from a combination of average lateral speed and a severe lack of strength. While the foot speed puts him at an immediate disadvantage, he uses his length well to recover and get his hands on the ball (he averaged 1.4 steals a game). He'll never be the most comfortable player in space but he isn't a total lost cause either.

Rather, strength seems to be the most concerning issue. It's simply too easy to take him out of the play with contact. It kills him on screen navigation and, especially, when defending bigger wings who can put their shoulders in his chest and drive him toward the rim. Most of the league's best scorers are adept and creating contact and then decelerating. I can already see Dick stumbling back under the hoop as his man finishes an easy layup.

Strength is something a 19 year old can and will add after a few years in an NBA weight room. But how much? He has somewhat narrow shoulders and, despite having similar measurements to Klay Thompson, I don't see him being able to put on as much muscle. Could he be as good of a defender as Khris Middleton? They put up very similar athletic testing numbers at their respective combines. Unfortunately, it's just impossible to project.

At the end of the day, Gradey Dick would be a great pick for the Pacers if they found themselves in the late lottery. He provides the shooting, movement, and work ethic that the Carlisle prizes. He may not have the "upside" of some players ranked ahead of him on big boards, but then again maybe he does. It will be interesting to see how his career turns out either way.

Tagged in:

Draft