Game Day: Draft Lotto

Today's the day. Well, today's the day before the day. The day we find out where we'll be picking on THE day. But don't let that fool you, today is still a very important day!

Where we land will play a significant role in how the front office chooses to build out the roster. To Pritchard's credit, the Pacers have a lot of options. We have draft picks and cap space to spare. We have a blend of youth and veterans. Our star player is only 23 but he's ready to compete at the highest levels. There are valid arguments both for continuing to rebuild organically and for acquiring veterans to speed up the process.

If we win the lottery, the choice is easy: draft Victor Wembanyama. With him in tow we'll have added a generational prospect and solidified a "big-3" in Haliburton, Mathurin, and Wemby. However promising Wemby may be, there's little question that he'll need a season or two to put on weight and acclimate to the NBA before he becomes a playoff difference maker. Therefore, the team's window for contention will be affixed to Wemby's timeline and I'd expect the front office to refrain from spending assets on "win-now" veterans.

If we make it into the top-4, much of the last paragraph is still applicable. However, it may be the perfect place to make a trade from a position of strength. The chance to draft Scoot Henderson, for example, might be enticing for a team with a star that is looking to blow it up.  

If we move back in the draft, all bets are off. We're at the mercy of the board. In a draft with as much parity as this one, we could get someone we love or someone we're apathetic about. Trading up, down, out, or not at all are all valid possibilities and we'll have plenty to rosterbate about over the coming month.

The Odds

The Pacers are going into the lottery as the 7th seed. Despite winning the tie-breaking coin flip with Washington, the teams will share the 7th best odds in tonight's lottery.  

As a result, there's about a 50% chance the Pacers move back, a 30% chance they move up, and only a 20% chance they stay put.

The odds they win the Wemby sweepstakes are low, about 6.8%, and the single most likely result is that they end up with the 8th pick (a 35.6% chance).

Obviously we are rooting for the Pacers to land Wemby but what else should Pacers fans be keeping an eye on?

Houston vs San Antonio

In the trade that sent Victor Oladipo to the Rockets we received Houston's second round pick this year on the condition that it lands between 31-32. If not, we receive the least favorable of the Heat, Mavericks, and Rockets picks.

Long story short, we need San Antonio to jump Houston in the lottery otherwise the Rockets' second round pick becomes number 33 and we do not get it. Instead, we'll receive the Heat's pick at number 50. Given the drop off between the two, acquiring the Rockets pick will be cause for minor celebration even if the Pacers do not move up for themselves.

So everybody cross their fingers. Get out your horseshoes, four-leaf clovers, and rabbits feet. Say a prayer to the deity of your choice. Sacrifice something inanimate. Tonight may very well change the direction of the franchise and we'll need all the luck we can get.