Exit Interviews: Chris Duarte

Frank Ocean. Baker Mayfield. The Stone Roses. Can you guess today's theme, class?

That's right, we're talking Sophomore Slumps. After making the NBA All-Rookie Second Team last year, Chris Duarte had a season to forget in '22-'23. Marred by injuries, displaced by a role change, and supplanted by younger players, everyone agrees: the man needs a fresh start.

But how much of a bounce back can we expect from Duarte? Was he a victim of circumstance or was his subpar play a regression to the mean?

The answer, frustratingly, is both.

The Circumstances

I. Draft Position

I'm starting at the beginning. In the summer of '21, after a season brought down by a failed coaching hire in Nate Bjorkgren and typically bad injury luck, the Pacers found themselves in the draft lottery for the first time since selecting Myles Turner. Despite plenty of evidence that the Brogdon/Warren/Turbonis core was incapable of competing for anything meaningful, the Pacers' brass insisted on pursuing a "win now" path. This led them to drafting Duarte, who was viewed as "NBA ready" due to his relatively advanced age of 24.

I won't wade into the merits of the fixation with youth in the draft, it deserves a longer, more nuanced discussion. What I will say, is the Pacers had a roster that was aging, slow, and had a very clear ceiling. Instead of opting to inject a bit of youth and athleticism* they chose a player that was considered a base hit in the hopes that he wouldn't take much time to develop.

Needless to say, this was an unpopular choice with many fans and, fair or not, means that Duarte will not be afforded the same runway to work through growing pains as other players on their rookie contracts.

*To the Front Office's credit, they did target youth and athleticism later in the first round when they traded up for Isaiah Jackson.

II. Injuries

Age and NBA readiness are irrelevant if a player can't suit up and Duarte has only played 55 and 46 games in his first two seasons, respectively. His time in the training room has prevented him from getting his footing in the league both literally and figuratively, as a toe injury cut his rookie season short and an ankle injury bothered him throughout this past year.

The injuries make it hard to judge Duarte. When he played consistently in his rookie season he looked like he belonged in the league. This year he simply never found his sea legs. And who can blame him, not only do injuries make it hard for athletes to physically perform, it robs them of rhythm.

Duarte simply wasn't a part of consistent lineups. Of all the lineups he took part in, only two of them played more than 100 possessions together, the most used totaling 143 possessions. Compare this to fellow bench guard Bennedict Mathurin, who played in eight lineups with at least 100 possessions played, one of which played 236 possessions.

You can argue that rhythm was especially important this year, as Duarte was asked to acclimate to a new team and a new role.

III. The New Team

Due to the aforementioned toe injury, Duarte only played 7 games with Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield last season. In his exit interview, he stated that while he loves playing with a point guard of Haliburton's caliber, it also required some adjusting as it forced him to play more off-ball, a role he's less comfortable with.

Before we get into any data, this assessment is supported by the eye test. For example, the team shut down Duarte after playing only one game in Summer League last year. Playing as the initiator, he looked heads and shoulders better than the competition. He played at his pace and made good decisions, easily getting to the line and finding his open teammates for assists.

But when the season started, he became just another off-ball guard in a roster log jammed with off-ball guards. Although he started the first two games of the season, his inability to make an impact next to Haliburton got him benched. Arguably, this compounded matters for Duarte as he now had to share the court with Mathurin, a player whose skill set closely overlaps with his own.

A Tale of Two Seasons

We know that Duarte played less with the ball in his hands than last year. How did that manifest in his offensive production?

For the analytically inclined, it resulted in him taking "better" shots. He shot less from midrange, especially long twos, and increased his frequency of three point attempts by about 10%.

If we look at his shot charts for each season side by side, we can see that he operated far less at the elbow this year than he did last year and spent more time in the classic off-ball spots: the corners, straight away, and at the rim.

But "better" is relative and Duarte struggled to convert the more analytically desirable looks. His points per 100 shot attempts plummeted from 109.2 (39th percentile for wings) to 99.1. As you can see below, he simply couldn't convert efficiently from three or at the rim despite 64% of his shots being classified as open according to the NBA's tracking stats.

Last year, his effective field goal percentage was buoyed by a hot start to the season, after which he regressed to a slightly below average player. This year, his outlier performances took him in the other direction.

In addition to playing more off-ball, Duarte was forced to matchup with forwards for most of the year. Whereas last year he played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard and the rest at small forward, this year he played a quarter of the time as the team's de facto power forward. The results were not great, as he was unable to justify the size disadvantage on the defensive end with his offensive production.  

Going Forward

Going forward, Duarte needs to prove that his skillset is beneficial to the Pacers as they are currently constructed. Between Haliburton, Nembhard, McConnell, Mathurin, and Duarte, the Pacers simply have too many guards who need the ball in their hands to thrive. If Duarte can't become better at spacing the floor, I'm not sure he makes sense on the Pacers roster.

Whether or not he is a part of a trade this off-season is something that we should all keep a close eye on.

Take a listen to his end of season interview and tell me what you think in the comments.