Evaluating Jarace Walker

Today we are looking at Jarace Walker, a forward prospect who has been mocked to us seemingly since the beginning of the year.

I'm trying to implement a more consistent way of evaluating draft prospects – thanks for bearing with me, by the way – and I've come up with a template using what we learned from Pritchard's and Carlisle's exit interviews.  

The first element is "position." Pritchard told us that instead of using traditional positions, the team designates players into one of six categories: Guard, Combo, Wing, Hybrid, Power Forward or Center.

Next is fit. Carlisle laid out exactly what the team is looking for in a forward:

1) Positional height (he called it 6'8/6'9).

2) Length.

3) Ability to guard multiple positions.

4) Three point shooting.

5) Ability to make plays.

Finally, I want to evaluate prospects based on my own conception of how the team should play, which I'll call the NASCAR scale. They'll be judged by how well I think they'd fit into a scheme that prioritizes speed, physicality, and versatility. The score will be calculated in horsepower, naturally, with a maximum score of 750.

Position

If I were going to classify him, I'd probably just call him a "big" since I think he will be interchangeable at the four or the five. But since we're using the Pacers' definitions he's a Power Forward.

Fair enough, because he's built like the prototypical NBA four-man. He's broad, burly and balances the scale at a stout 250 lbs. I have no doubt he could time travel back to the No Babies Allowed era and fit in alongside the Davis brothers.

Returning to the present, however, there is one caveat about his positional classification. Bigs who can't shoot are effectively treated as Centers on this Pacers team. As such, if he can't consistently space the floor, his position is subject to change.

Fit

Positional Height

Compared to the average Power Forward, Walker is a bit on the shorter side. Per the official Combine measurement, he stands 6'6.5 without shoes. Nevertheless he's far from undersized and probably grazes Carlisle's 6'8 criteria with a pair of Jordans on. In today's NBA, where Caleb Martin logs heavy minutes as the de-facto four on a Finals team, I'm more than comfortable with Walker's height.

Length

One of the reasons I'm not worried about his height is his fantastic length. He's built like an albatross with his 7'2.5 wingspan. From David West to Draymond Green to PJ Tucker, we've seen countless examples of wingspan making up for a lack of height on the interior.

I should note however, that while his length helped him ace the wingspan test, it doesn't quite show up on the standing reach measurement. In fact he only ranks in the 13th percentile among Power Forwards.

I'll spare throwing a bunch of measurements at you, but it seems like this is common among players who have outsized wingspans for their height. I don't think his short standing reach will affect him much as an interior defender as he is a terrific leaper and has great block timing.

Guards Multiple Positions

Ok, enough with the measurements, let's talk actual basketball, right? Not so fast. Before we get into how Jarace can impact the Pacers' defense, I want to establish why he's such a versatile defender. Long story short, he's a freak athlete.

He's incredibly bouncy, whether from a standstill or on the run, and he has surprisingly quick feet for a man of his size. His lane agility was reportedly the 6th fastest in Combine history among Power Forwards.

On purely a physical level, Walker possesses that coveted combination of size and explosiveness needed to protect the rim and the nimble feet needed to stay in front of ball handlers on the perimeter. Unsurprisingly, he's one of the best athletes in the 2023 draft class.

Defensive IQ

When I hear "guards multiple positions," the first thing I think of is an on-ball defender that can both stay in front of perimeter players and bang with post players. While Walker has that athleticism, it's his defensive IQ that separates him from the pack.  

The following clip illustrates Walker's understanding of what the offense is trying to do and how to thwart it. Alabama is running a pretty straightforward high pick-and-roll action. They've spread the floor to maximize space inside for the roller. Moreover, they've got Walker, Houston's rim protector, matched up with Brandon Miller in the corner. Miller is a lights out shooter and Alabama's best player, which is exactly how Alabama wants the play set up. If Walker leaves Miller to help inside, Alabama is going to get a great look. If Walker stays, they'll hit the roller for a layup or a mismatch in the post, another winning scenario.

Walker knows exactly the bind he's in. So what does he do? He does it by the book. First he cuts off the roll to prevent an easy bucket. Then, knowing that the ball is now going to Miller, he eyes the point guard, waiting for him to start his passing motion. The second the pass is out of the guard's hand Walker is on his way back to the corner. This recognition and anticipation allows him to guard two players at once and snuff out the weakside action singlehandedly.

The next play is a prime example of his defensive processing speed. It's one thing to execute a simple switch, but can you keep track of where you're supposed to be when the offense is throwing multiple actions at you in quick succession? Jarace Walker can. Watch him hard hedge on two pick and rolls, recover to the paint to cover the roller, then detach from his man to force an airball at the rim. It's a defensive positioning clinic.

On-Ball Defense

Given Walker's lane agility drill scores at the combine, it's not a surprise that he's an above average on-ball defender. If you read the scouting reports on him, you'll find a lot of hype – even some claims that he can guard 1-5. In my opinion he'll be an Al Horford type. Capable of switching out on guards and holding his own for a few seconds but not someone you want matched up with quick ball handlers all game long.

I think 3-5 is a more realistic expectation of who he can lock down, while acknowledging that he has the foot speed to hard hedge, recover, and stay in front of most players for the final few seconds of the shot clock. In fact, his footwork generally deserves praise. The way he moves his massive frame with choppy, nimble steps looks like one of those dancing bear, Pro-Bowl Left Tackles.

Block Timing

You see the combination of his excellent anticipation and his 95th percentile vertical leap bear fruit in his ability to block shots at the rim. He reminds me of Turner in the way he consistently times the opponents shot correctly.

Fit With Turner

In some ways, there's an overlap concern with Jarace and Turner. You could argue that both are best when playing defensive QB and roaming the paint. However, I believe Jarace has the IQ and speed to complement Turner in ways that are remincent of the NBA's best defensive big duos. Think Giannis and Lopez, Horford and Williams, Vanderbilt and Davis. If a team tries to bring Turner out of the paint, Walker can fill in admirably. If not, he's got the range and IQ to be a menace switching and recovering in on-ball actions.

Breaking Down Jarace Walker’s Defensive Versatility | The Friday Screener

Jarace Walker is one of the most unique players in the country, and his defensive versatility is a leading reason why.

No CeilingsTyler Metcalf

Shoots Threes

This is where the fit with Turner becomes a legitimate issue for concern. As we saw with the departure of Sabonis, Turner is a different player when he's allowed to operate in the middle of the court rather than as a floor spacer. Moreover, he's much more efficient when guarded by opposing centers. As such, Jarace needs to be able to shoot over 35% from three to force the opposing defenses to close out to him and save Turner from being crossmatched with smaller defenders.

There's reason for hope. Jarace shot 34.7% from three on the year (almost 3 attempts per game) and just under 38% on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He has compact, replicable mechanics and understands how to use a quick hop to gain balance and instigate his shot motion.

Having said that, he's not what I'd call a natural shooter. A lot of the time it looks like he's aiming, which leads to a slow release and some bad misses.

Improvement in shooting ability is common in the NBA, so all things being equal, I wouldn't pass on Walker purely over the concern that he isn't a guaranteed floor spacer. In fact, if he shoots as well as he did at Houston, he wouldn't be all that far behind what we got from Aaron Nemsith this season. Nevertheless, you have to assume that he'll hit a rookie wall and dead legs will cause his jump shot to go missing for a significant stretch next year. During that period, he'll be relegated to fighting for backup center minutes with Smith and IJax, if both are still on the roster.

Makes Plays

As I mentioned before, Walker has excellent basketball IQ. You can see him processing the game one step ahead, often making quick passes to open teammates or directing them where to cut.

Jarace Walker probably could’ve finished this lob, but the awareness to make this pass is actually incredible pic.twitter.com/2MUfEZzeF3

— bryce (@ecyrbmz) May 23, 2023

At the same time, he doesn't possess a tight handle and can often get sped up. He turns the ball over far too much when trying to make plays – about 20% of the time on drives – and therefore projects to be more of a low usage connector than an off-the-dribble playmaker.

His lack of handle also hinders his scoring ability when he's run off the line. While he does possess a nice floater, he is over reliant on it because he struggles to get all the way to the basket.

NASCAR Scale

All in all, Jarace fits much of what I want out of running mate for Tyrese. Not only does he have the athleticism to run in transition, he is more than capable of playing a fast, blitzing style of defense that leads to fast break opportunities.

His IQ and quick processing should mesh well with Hali on offense. It's not hard to imagine them reading each other's minds and beating the defense for lots of easy looks.

However he loses points for being a questionable floor spacer and not being the most capable driver off of closeouts.

At the end of the day, Jarace Walker is going to be a very solid player in the league. I can see him being the type of premium role player who elevates a team's defense to championship levels while making enough plays to keep the offense humming. If he's our choice on draft night, we should be a better team than we were the day before.