Evaluating Taylor Hendricks

Wednesday is a big day in Pacersland. Two potential top-10 picks are coming to Gainbridge for individual workouts in Taylor Hendricks and Jarace Walker. I've already written a lengthy profile on Walker, so Taylor Hendricks gets a solo profile to go along with his solo workout.

Just as a reminder, I'm going to evaluate forward prospects based on the criteria Carlisle and Pritchard laid out at their end-of-season press conferences as well as their ability to play in what I'm calling a NASCAR system.

The first element is "position." Pritchard told us that instead of using traditional positions, the team designates players into one of six categories: Guard, Combo, Wing, Hybrid, Power Forward or Center.

Next is fit. Carlisle laid out exactly what the team is looking for in a forward:

1) Positional height (he called it 6'8/6'9).

2) Length.

3) Ability to guard multiple positions.

4) Three point shooting.

5) Ability to make plays.

Finally, I want to evaluate prospects based on my own conception of how the team should play, which I'll call the NASCAR scale. They'll be judged by how well I think they'd fit into a scheme that prioritizes speed, physicality, and versatility. The score will be calculated in horsepower, naturally, with a maximum score of 750.

Position

Hendricks is a Power Forward. He's got the size, he's got the length, and he can shoot well enough to allow Turner the freedom to play inside.  

Fit

Positional Height

Carlisle said they are looking for someone who is 6'8 or 6'9. Hendricks measured at 6'8.25 without shoes on at the combine, so he fits the bill.

Length

He's not an albatross like some other prospects, but at 7'0.5 his wingspan is plenty long.

It's a little funny because when you watch the tape of Hendricks you see a great physical specimen. Tall, long, good frame. But when you look at how his physical measurements compare to other Power Forward prospects through the years, you find that his height and weight combination are actually average to below average. It's not a knock on him as much as it's a reminder of how freakishly large and athletic NBA players actually are.

Guards Multiple Positions

This is where Hendricks shines. I mentioned yesterday that projecting Noah Clowney would be a glue guy wasn't an insult because the 3-and-D forward is one of the most sought after archetypes in the NBA. Hendricks is proof of that statement.

At the beginning of the college basketball season, Hendricks wasn't a popular name among the mock draft community. Nevertheless, he quickly worked his way into the conversation, beginning as someone who might be available at the end of the first round, then the late lottery, and now seemingly a lock to go in the top ten.

While he led UCF in scoring, the impetus for his rise is not his ability to take over a game offensively, but his ability to wreck it defensively.

Rim Protection

Hendricks is another prospect who possesses an innate ability to time blocks. UCF mainly used him as a roamer or in drop coverage so that he would be in position to challenge shots at the rim. He has the range to dart in from the weakside and the verticality to wall up when he's in front of the hoop. He played his role admirably, leading the AAC in both total blocks and blocks per game.

Candidly, this is similar to how we use Turner and part of me wonders if Hendricks would be better off as a 5, where he can focus on rim protection. On the one hand, he has the ability to lock down the paint and I think he could fill in admirably playing that role when the matchup requires it. Nevertheless, he presents some of the same problems as Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith. While he can get some highlight blocks, he's light and is a poor defensive rebounder. I'd be concerned that we'd continue to need double teams against bigger centers and struggle to close out possessions if that were his full time position.

Switchability

Luckily, Hendricks has the strength, agility, and coordination to stay in front of perimeter players. As such, he shouldn't need to be a dedicated rim protector in order to have an impact.

I do want to throw out a note of caution. There is a ton of hype around Hendricks' defensive versatility – deservedly so – and the term "guards 1-5" is thrown around liberally. But like Jarace, I'm not convinced Hendricks is the type of defender that you matchup with the opposing team's best scorer, regardless of position. If that player is a 3/4 or a bruising 2 (think Anthony Edwards or Benn Mathurin), go for it. However quick guards, especially ones who get run off of a million screens, I think Hendricks would struggle with over the course of a game.

Still, he is more than capable of checking most anyone for a few beats on a switch and that's all that's really necessary. His length and footwork gobble up opposing ball handlers and he has the quick hands to create turnovers.

His off ball recognition is also solid. He's shown the ability to get steals by anticipating where the play is headed and cheating into passing lanes.

It goes without saying that Hendricks is the type of "high-tide" defender that raises all boats. The difference between UCF's defensive rating with Hendricks on the court vs off of it is simply staggering. With Hendricks playing UCF allowed 93.7 points per 100 possessions, with him sitting they gave up 108.2. That's the difference between a top 30 defense and a top 300 defense.

Shoots Threes

We've covered the D, now let's talk about the 3. He shot a very enticing 39.4% on almost five three point attempts per game. He's got a fluid stroke and solid mechanics – though he does rotate a bit – that suggest his shot will translate to the next level.

He's a catch-and-shoot player who should thrive next to the playmakers on the Pacers roster. He seems to set his feet well coming off of a pop or a flare and doesn't need much time to tee it up.

However, I wouldn't expect him to make many shots off dribble. Both his handle and body control hamper his effectiveness when shooting off of a dynamic movement.

Makes Plays

If Hendricks had perimeter skill he would be considered a future All-Star instead of a future high end glue-guy. While he did put a little self-creation ability on tape, it's hard to project that he'll develop into anything more than a spot up shooter and dunker on offense.

He lacks a handle or a feel for the game as a passer. While he wouldn't need to do much creating for the Pacers, he'll need to be better at taking advantage of closeouts in order to truly excel as a forward in our system.

One red flag, is that he struggles to finish anything that isn't a dunk around the rim. He shot under 45% on layups, indicating that he needs to add muscle. His game tape shows him struggling both with absorbing contact and controlling his body when moving at speed.  

NASCAR

While that inability to just rip and attack the rim consistently is a concern, I don't want to pain the picture that he isn't explosive. In fact Hendricks is one of the better dunkers in the draft class. In conjunction with his ability to spot up in a corner, his finishing ability would make a great running mate for Tyrese in transition.

The same speed and explosiveness translate to defensive transition as well, where his excellent block timing produces some jaw dropping chase down swats.

When you look at the total package, he fits very well in a fast paced system. His defensive versatility allows him to thrive stunting, hard hedging, and switching in the half-court. In transition he can pick up smaller players and force them to pull the ball out – or just block them if they attack the rim.

Offensively, he has the ability to stretch the floor or dunk drop-offs and lobs. Though he does lose points for struggling to attack close outs and not processing the game at a fast pace.

If we draft Hendricks, we'll be getting a player with great physical tools who can do things defensively nobody else on the roster can. I'm not sure he has star upside, but everyone has their warts in our range. If the game slows down for him and he develops a handle, watch out.