The coins have been flipped, the ties have been broken, the results are in:

  • The Pacers won the tiebreaker with the Wizards
  • The Rockets won the tiebreaker with the Spurs
  • The Heat won the three-way tiebreaker with the Warriors and the Clippers
  • The Grizzlies won the tiebreaker with the Cavs

While we know more than we did entering today, we'll be in the dark on the two most important questions to Pacers fans until after the lottery:

1) What pick will the Pacers have in the first round?

2) Will the Pacers get the Rockets pick or the Heat pick in the second round?

So what did we learn today?  

We know definitively where three of our five picks will be: 26th, 29th, and 55th.

Going into today, only the pick received from the Celtics in the Malcolm Brogdon trade has been set in stone, at 29th, while the rest of the picks required a tie breaking procedure due to teams finishing with the same records.  

Our Pick

First and foremost, we'll go into the lottery as the 7th pick, having won the coin flip with Washington. While we now have a leg up on Washington in the draft order, we will split the lottery odds with them, giving us about a 6.8% chance at the #1 overall pick and a 29.4% chance at landing in the top 4.

If we are not one of the four teams selected in the lottery, our draft range is between 7-11. We only get pushed down if a team currently seeded below us is selected into the top 4.  

The Rockets/Heat Pick

We had a vested interest in the tiebreaker between the Rockets and Spurs given that we receive the Rockets' second round pick only if it lands in the top 32. Because the loser of the coin flip gets the better pick in the second round, we were unlucky that the Spurs lost the tiebreaker. For now, the Rockets have the 33rd pick in the second round, meaning we get the Heat's pick instead.  

However, we can hold out hope for the 32nd pick until after the lottery. If the Spurs jump the Rockets, the NBA will treat it as if the coin flip went the other way, and the second round picks will be switched accordingly. Therefore, we need the Spurs to draft ahead of Houston in the first round if we want the Rockets' second round pick.

If that doesn't come to pass we will have the 50th pick in draft, which originally belonged to the Heat. The Heat finished the season tied with the Warriors and the Clippers. Unfortunately Miami won the tiebreaker between the three, giving them the worst possible second round pick.  

The Cavs Picks

Due to various trades, including the LeVert trade last year, we own both of the Cavs picks in the upcoming draft. They finished the season tied with the Grizzlies and lost the coin flip. As such, we'll receive the 26th and 55th picks.

Neither of these picks are in the lottery and therefore are not subject to change.

Going Forward

Now we wait for the Draft Lottery which takes place on May 16th. We'll be rooting 1) to move up into the top 4, 2) that no teams with lower seeds jump us, and 3) that San Antonio ends up with a higher pick than Houston.  

Perhaps luck will be on our side, as the 7th pick is on a hot streak of being selected into the top 4:

Until then, we have another month rife with speculation to look forward to.

Tagged in:

Draft